Evolution Casino
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What we saw in evolution when investing in stocks under SEK 200
Evolution Casino
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Evolution Gaming Casinos
Evolution Gaming Group’s stock performance at the time of writing is as follows: The stock price recently crossed 1100 SEK, but that’s not the picture I saw when I started investing.
We started investing in Evolution and NetEnt in 2018 and 2019. NetEnt was acquired by Evolution in Q4 2020.
The stock was made almost 6 times (from 25 to 150) in 4 years. Doesn’t it seem expensive? Little did we know that in a few years (between 20 and 1100) it would be over 50x.
What motivated you to invest in the company in the first place? Why didn’t we sell our stock sooner? What do you see in a company that’s going to be one of our biggest stakes?
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The story of Evolution’s first stock purchase did not stem specifically from an interest in online gambling. One of us has an engineer training and wanted to test how long it would take to make money by playing roulette using the Martingale betting system. It was 2018. The idea was to create a Monte Carlo simulation and see how a large set of scenarios would play out. Can you win in the long run?
The basic idea of Martingale is to make money playing roulette or similar games where you have about a 50% chance of winning by doubling your bet each time you play. When you finally win, you reduce your bet back to the minimum amount.
When I created an online account to test casino games, I realized that there are many ways to play roulette online. First I discovered NetEnt games. They had a version that allows you to bet on games very quickly for a short amount of time. When I tested the Martingale betting system, I realized that I could earn about 30 euros per hour with a minimum bet of 0.1 euros. That is, until we get lucky. It turns out that the house will win out in the end, as predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation model. So it was nothing more than a fun way to test ideas on our minds. But it gave me an understanding of which companies make games.
As an alternative to NetEnt games, I saw a category called Live Casino. Games in this category are mainly created by the company Evolution. Instead of playing roulette like a computer game, you can live stream the real dealer. Imagine a real person playing roulette for you. At the time, trying the Martingale betting system was a bit too slow and had a higher pay per hour, but we think it could be a great place to get another type of gaming experience that will get you more hours.
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Let’s say you’re disappointed that the martingale betting system doesn’t work and that the house will always win, but you think differently. It can be more fun trying to make money while on the other side of the game, i.e. delivering games instead of playing them.
So we started researching other companies in the business. In 2018 we saw a lot of casino operators that got cheaper in 2018. So we bought shares in Betsson for example in the summer of 2018 for around SEK 50 per share. The company seemed pretty profitable, but we soon discovered that game developers were even more profitable. For example, NetEnt had almost the same P/E ratio as Betsson, but its game developers generated significantly more capital than casino operators.
Since we already knew about some NetEnt games after the Monte Carle Simulation story, we decided to spend more time researching the company. What was interesting to us in the summer of 2018 and the back half of 2019 is that the company looked fairly cheap compared to the free cash flow it generates to shareholders. Cash flow was high, but growth stalled, and that’s probably why the stock market was so much cheaper than before. He was going to lose his business in Sweden, but it seemed like a tiny market compared to his overall business.
Unfortunately, it took me a long time to research Evolution Gaming’s annual report. If we had been there earlier, we would have been lucky enough to have been able to participate directly in the 50-bagger! It wasn’t until the early spring of 2019, when the 2018 Annual Report was published, that we started taking a deep dive into the company’s business and its numbers.
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Evolution’s annual report was very well written and clearly explained what the business was made of and what it did. We find that this business is positioned for significant growth going forward and is operating with tremendous tailwinds.
You can read a report we read that gave us a first decent impression of evolution.
Below are figures showing Börsdata.se’s profitability indicators and developments over the past 10 years. In 2019, I had almost the same impression.
Operating margins were already quite high in 2018. They earned more than 40% of their pre-tax income. This meant, for us, that business operations weren’t suited to staffing, sales, and general. They seem to be doing good business.
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Business numbers looked very good. Their business model also seemed very lucrative. Creating a studio in a physical location, hiring dealers and other staff to operate 24/7 can make huge profits. They can earn huge income from just one studio. Studios and dealers can service 50 customers as easily as a thousand. Direct labor costs are low to serve more customers flocking to popular games. As such, the company can expand a lot with top-notch games, and the studio can be very profitable if the number of players increases enough.
As with NetEnt, there were many other factors that led me to believe that evolution would face massive headwinds.
It’s funny, but as far as I’ve seen on social media and especially on Twitter, the higher the price, the more popular a stock is. More and more people are starting to invest in it, but this could happen after a lot of growth has already happened. Why didn’t they buy the truck when the stock sold for 200 seconds instead of 1000? Naturally, people like to talk more openly about stocks that have gone up a lot more than stocks that have gone down and lost money.
A significant portion of the revenue from our evolutionary journey came from our initial investment in NetEnt. As mentioned above, NetEnt has been a great developer of casino games i.e. slots. We bought stock in the company because we thought it had a good business model, a high return on equity, and strong free cash flow.
Evolution Gaming Sets A New Standard
Evolution and NetEnt popped up on our radar when we screened for stocks with high returns on capital and good operating margins. For example, you can use the screener from Börsdata.se to filter out, for example, companies that earn more than a certain percentage of shares. You can also filter out companies with high operating margins and prices that are sufficiently low compared to the standard.
The reason we liked the NetEnt company was that it looked pretty cheap compared to the cash flow value we expected the company to deliver in the future. Even if the increase is not that large, I felt that there was a margin of safety.
The benefit is that the company is already a leader in the slots market. this got us thinking
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